Physician workforce projections point to persistent hiring challenges, especially outside metro areas. Here is what the data means for recruitment, retention, and coverage planning.
Healthcare hiring decisions are rarely just about filling an open position. They also affect appointment availability, call coverage, workload, and the services an organization can reliably offer. For employers recruiting physicians, federal workforce projections point to a continuing need for thoughtful, long-term staffing plans.
The challenge is not identical in every market. Specialty, geography, retirement patterns, and local demand all matter. Understanding those differences is more useful than treating “the healthcare shortage” as one uniform problem.
What the physician workforce data shows
In its December 2025 physician workforce brief, the Health Resources and Services Administration projects a national shortage of 141,160 full-time-equivalent physicians by 2038. HRSA also projects shortages in 30 of the 35 physician specialties included in the analysis. [1]
That is a forecast—not a count of positions sitting vacant today. HRSA defines one full-time equivalent, or FTE, as 40 hours of work per week. Its estimates measure workforce capacity rather than simply counting individual doctors.
The projections also depend on assumptions about factors such as graduation, attrition, and labor-force participation. They are useful for planning, but they are not a guarantee that every organization will experience the same hiring conditions.
Geography can make the hiring challenge very different
The national total does not tell the whole story. HRSA projects that physician supply in nonmetro areas will meet 42% of projected demand in 2038, compared with 95% in metro areas. Those percentages describe projected supply adequacy—not the percentage of jobs currently filled. [1]
For a rural employer, this is a reason to examine more than the number of applications received. A role may also need a realistic call schedule, a clear onboarding process, relocation support, and a compelling explanation of the community and clinical setting.
Employers should also avoid assuming that a national specialty forecast settles the local question. A nationwide balance between supply and demand would not necessarily mean a particular community has the clinicians it needs.
An aging population and workforce add planning pressure
The Association of American Medical Colleges’ March 2024 report projects that the U.S. population aged 65 and older will grow 34.1% by 2036 within its projection period. The AAMC identifies population growth and aging as major drivers of future physician demand. [2]
The same report states that physicians aged 65 and older represented 20% of the clinical physician workforce, while those aged 55–64 represented another 22%. These figures describe the workforce assessed in that report, not a fresh measurement of today’s workforce. They nevertheless highlight why succession planning deserves attention before a retirement creates an immediate coverage gap. [2]
HRSA and AAMC use different models and projection periods. Their findings should be read on their own terms, not combined into a single shortage estimate.
Five practical steps for healthcare employers
1. Forecast coverage needs alongside vacancies. Review expected retirements, scheduled leave, service expansion, and call obligations. A staffing plan should show when coverage will be needed, not just which positions have been approved.
2. Make the opportunity specific. Explain the patient population, schedule, support team, scope of work, compensation structure, and call expectations. Clear information helps candidates assess fit before either side invests heavily in the process.
3. Identify avoidable hiring delays. Track the time between application, interview, offer, credentialing, and start date. Assign ownership to each step, while keeping credentialing and clinical review standards intact.
4. Protect the team already in place. Recruitment is only part of the staffing equation. Review workload, administrative support, schedule predictability, and clinician feedback so that new hires are not simply replacing preventable departures.
5. Plan temporary coverage deliberately. Locum tenens may help maintain services during a permanent search, leave period, or transition. Define the assignment’s purpose and handoff plan rather than treating temporary coverage as a substitute for long-term recruitment.
These are planning recommendations, not outcomes demonstrated by the workforce projections. Each organization should test them against its own staffing data, budget, and clinical requirements.
Build a plan around your market
The evidence supports taking physician workforce constraints seriously, but broad statistics are only a starting point. A useful hiring plan connects national trends to a specific specialty, community, schedule, and patient population.
The figures in this article concern physicians. Dental, nursing, and advanced practice hiring decisions require their own profession-specific evidence.
Planning a physician hire or a coverage transition? Connect with IronHire Group to discuss your permanent recruitment and locum tenens needs, including the location, specialty, schedule, and start date you are working toward.
Sources
[1] HRSA — Physician Workforce: Projections, 2023–2038. Published December 2025. Federal workforce projections; FTEs are defined as 40 hours per week.
[2] AAMC — New AAMC Report Shows Continuing Projected Physician Shortage. Published March 21, 2024. Summary of projections from 2021 to 2036.